April 26, 2024
Are you ready for the Battle of the North? I am not talking about Game of Thrones, it's Canada's northern ridings, and different banners are vying to represent them.
Do you ever look at a political map after an election, or maps designed by pollsters/aggregators to show what Canada could look like after the 45th (2025) Canadian General Election?
As you look to the territories and northern ridings in the provinces, large chunks are represented by the Liberals, NDP and Conservative Party for the most part. Just looking at the map, you might think these parties have won a ton of ridings.
Then you find out that many of these large chunks are individual ridings. Particularly in Nunavut, NWT, Yukon, Quebec, Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, as well as Labrador. British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario have a few more northern ridings, but they are pretty large too. Some northern ridings are larger than European countries.
Another common feature in these northern ridings is that they have large Indigenous populations. Take the Denethé-Missinippi-Churchill riding in northern Saskatchewan, it almost takes up half of the province. This will be an interesting battle as all three major parties have Indigenous candidates. The riding has no incumbent, so it will be one to watch on election night. They include Buckley Belanger for the Liberals, Jim Lemaigre for the Conservative Party and Doug Racine for the NDP. Before his federal run, Buckley Belanger was an Sask NDP MLA in his home province for quite a few terms before running federally for the Liberal Party in this riding. It appears, Buckley and Doug had a few federals and now federal races in the past. Doug Racine is a Red River Métis. he has a diverse background from serving in the military to creating a law firm with 5 other lawyers. Jim Lemaigre is another former Saskatchewan legislator; he was an MLA for the Saskatchewan Party. All experienced leaders and politicians, this will make for an interesting race.
Nunavut is similar, except that NDP MP Lori Idlout isthe incumbent. She is a strong performer in the House of Commons, a strong advocate for Indigenous people and Northerners. If we follow current polls, it will be a challenge to keep it orange. Nunavut is sometimes seen as a bellwether riding changing with the government. Lori won the riding in a by-election after Mumilaaq Qaqqaq stepped down in 2021. Before that, it was held by Liberal Hunter Tootoo, and before that, it was held by Conservative Leona Aglukkaq - both Cabinet Ministers in their respective governments.
Another interesting race, the northern Manitoba riding Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, is the rematch between Indigenous candidate Rebecca Chartrand and longtime NDP candidate Niki Ashton, who has been the MP since 2008, but Pierre Poilievre has her beat by one term. It will be interesting to see if she gets any of the good energy created by NDP Wab Kinew's win and flipping the province to an NDP government. In a CBC article, it was noted that Premier Wab Kinew didn't endorse federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh.
In 2015, Ashton and Chartrand went head-to-head to win the riding; Niki Ashton beat Rebecca Chartrand by 912 votes. Poll aggregator 338Canada currently has the race as a toss-up between the LPC and NDP. If the NDP lose seats as widely predicted, will Ashton be a casualty? Rebecca has a solid background in working with Northerners and Indigenous people, which helps her connect with many Manitobans. She has a diverse Indigenous background, which includes Anishinaabe, Inninew, Dakota, and Métis, which is a reflection of the diversity of the riding.
This will be an interesting race to watch! It once took roughly two weeks before they counted all the ballots, with reports of electoral stations running out of ballots. It can take a while to declare a winner, so we may not find out until the day after.
Notably, the famous First Nation leader, Elijah Harper won for the Liberals in 1993.
--- MORE TO COME ON THIS ARTICLE, THIS RACE AND OTHER INTERESTING NORTHERN BATTLES, I AM WATCHING CLOSELY ---
